An Analysis of the Climate Change “Hoax”
The Asia Environmental Daily
By: Scott Garner | Beijing, China February 4, 2018
One of the many benefits to having a legal background is the development of strong analytical skills. It’s a basic requirement of the job. As a lawyer, you need to look at the cold hard facts, and argue your case as best you can. You need to treat your opponent seriously. You need to get into the mind of your opponent. You need to understand their theory of the case. These are just basic requirements of the job.
I have decided to take the Climate Change “hoax” seriously. Look at the facts, get inside the mind of the true believer, and take these beliefs in the climate change “hoax” to their necessary and logical conclusion.
If nothing else, this will be an interesting thought exercise.
Let’s start with some basic definitions before we dive into our deeper analysis.
Climate Change: Climate change is a change in the statistical distribution of weather patterns when that change lasts for an extended period of time (i.e., decades to millions of years). Climate change is caused by factors such as biotic processes, variations in solar radiation received by Earth, plate tectonics, and volcanic eruptions. Certain human activities have been identified as primary causes of ongoing climate change, often referred to as global warming.
Hoax: A hoax is a falsehood deliberately fabricated to masquerade as the truth. It is distinguishable from errors in observation or judgment, rumors, urban legends, pseudosciences, and other events that are passed along in good faith by believers or as jokes.
Conspiracy: A conspiracy is a secret agreement by people to commit something wrong or illegal.
Those are the basic elements of what we will now discuss. A world-wide “conspiracy” to commit a “climate change” “hoax” on the United States.
The essential argument of the current United States Government and “climate change deniers” in general is that:
1) Climate change is not real
2) Climate change is nothing more than a hoax
3) This hoax is being orchestrated by “Asia”
4) With the help and assistance of other governments around the world
5) Supported by the data of scientists, who are either corrupt or who have collectively misinterpreted the data
6) In order for all conspirators (the rest of the world) to gain economic advantage over the United States
This is essentially the argument of the fairly average climate-change denier and the official policy of the current United States government.
But let’s take this argument seriously. And let it lead us to its logical conclusions.
Climate Change is NOT real (a hoax)
For the sake of argument, we will accept all of the climate change denier’s allegations as true. We will accept that whatever global warming (if any) that is occurring can be attributed to non-human activities, such as solar flares, geo-thermal activity, volcanic activity, etc. We will accept that whatever global warming (if any) that may be occurring can be attributed to non-human occurrences and that human activity has no, or at least negligible impact on the environment and global warming. In short, the earth is not warming and even if it is, humans are not causing it.
We therefore move onto the next elements of the climate change denier’s argument. “Global warming” is a vast hoax being perpetrated by various “bad actors’ engaging in a conspiracy, to gain economic advantage over the United States.
Let’s start with the “bad actors”: 1) world-wide national governments and 2) world scientists
In 2015, 195 countries signed the “Paris Agreement.” The stated aim of the agreement was to "stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system". There are currently 195 countries in the world, representing 7.6 billion people. Although the United States signed onto the Paris Agreement, the current administration has signaled its intentions to withdraw from the agreement. Therefore, we will consider the United States as being the lone country in the world, not in the agreement. Therefore, we have a potential “conspiracy” of world governments totaling 194 countries representing 7.3 billion persons conspiring against one country, the United States.
What is somewhat extraordinary are the group of conspirators we are dealing with. Among the conspirators are America’s strongest allies (Great Britain, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Belgium, Netherlands, Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Finland, Poland, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Canada, Mexico, Brazil, Argentina, S. Korea, Japan, Australia). This group of allies, who the US has been friends and allies with for decades, have mutual defense treaties with, strong trade ties with, have for some inexplicable reason decided to conspire with America's “sworn enemies”…Syria, Iran, Cuba, N. Korea, Russia, and China in perpertating the hoax. And somehow, all of these countries, all of these conspirators, allies and enemies alike, have roped in the other 100+ countries to join their conspiracy. Again, we take the climate denier’s allegations as true. We take their allegations “seriously.”
The World’s Scientists and Academics
194 countries cannot engage in a massive conspiracy against the United States without help. They need scientific data to support their fraudulent claims. At this point, the 194 countries, allies and enemies alike, have enlisted the help of the world’s leading scientists to aid them in their conspiracy. And this is no small matter. There are a LOT of scientists in the world, spread across the globe. And they all need to be brought into the conspiracy. How many scientists? Well, let’s do a rough calculation.
According to UNESCO, there are 7.8 million scientists in the world. And of that 7.8 million, 97% have gone on record as stating they believe that climate change is real and human activity is a leading cause. Therefore, there are 7,566,000 scientists (biologists, chemists, physicists, geologists, climatologists, etc) who are now actively engaged in the massive “fraud” against the United States. Apparently, those who have professed a love of learning and teaching, who have dedicated their lives to expanding human knowledge, are thoroughly corruptible, and in fact, thoroughly corrupted. Not a good group, these PhD’s and academics. Not a good group at all.
“The Conspiracy” to hobble America’s economic interests
Now that we have established the "bad actors" in this conspiracy, it's time to move onto the purpose of the conspiracy.
As we have already established, global warming and climate change is not occurring. The earth is just fine in fact. Temperatures are stable, seas are not rising, and the polar bears are just fine. The Paris agreement, the coordinated efforts of 99.48% of the world's governments, and all of the scientific data reported by the world's scientists is nothing more than a big “hoax.” But what is the purpose of the "hoax"? 194 world governments do not conspire with 7,566,000 of the world's leading scientist for no reason. The reason is to damage the United States economic interests.
According to the theory, the rest of the world needed “global warming” to gain an economic advantage over the United States. Even though the United States suffers from high labor costs, low investments in general education and STEM, burdensome regulations, high taxes, but low investments in infrastructure, and an infrastructure that is crumbling. Even though the US has already shifted its manufacturing overseas decades ago. Even though the US is experiencing political gridlock that prevents it from addressing any issue of any real substance. The rest of the world needed something “more” to make America even less competitive. And thus was born, the worldwide conspiracy to raise America's energy costs. Because America's self-inflicted wounds were just not enough.
Occam's razor is a principle from philosophy in which between two explanations for an occurrence, the simpler one is usually better. Another way of saying it is that the more assumptions you have to make, the more unlikely an explanation is. This is not only a useful tool in science, philosophy, and law, it is useful for every day common sense. Let’s put this tool to good use.
Is climate change occurring or is it all a grand hoax?
Theory 1: The Climate-Change “Hoax” as World-Wide Conspiracy Against the United States
1) Climate change is not real
2) Climate change is nothing more than a hoax
3) This hoax is being orchestrated by “Asia,” a continent of nations that largely dislike and distrust each other
4) With the help and assistance of virtually the entire world’s governments (99.48%)
5) Supported by the data of 7,566,000 scientists, who are either stupid, corrupt or who have somehow collectively misinterpreted the data
6) In order for all conspirators (99.48% of the world) to gain economic advantage over the United States
Theory 2: Climate Change is Real
1) The world’s scientists are not stupid, not corrupt, wish to add to human knowledge, and have a beneficial impact on human society
2) Climate change is real and is scientifically verifiable
3) The world’s scientists have reported their data accurately and 99.48% of the world’s governments are taking action accordingly
4) Climate change deniers simply wish to deny the truth for their own reasons
I cannot tell you what the truth is. I have taken the climate change deniers arguments seriously and given them the serious attention they deserve. You cannot simply accept a random statement of fact without extending those facts to their logical conclusions. You cannot profess a series of beliefs, while ignoring or dismissing their larger implications. If you choose to believe one theory or the other, you are accepting it all. You don’t get to pick and choose which parts you like and discard the rest. But these are your two basic alternatives.
For me, the answer is pretty clear. Occam’s razor has a way of cutting through the “complexity”. If a theory requires you make up too many assumptions, too many explanations (excuses), jump through too many hoops, bend over backwards, perform sumersaults, stretch credibility to the breaking point...that explanation is probably not the correct one.
The question is…
Do you believe that 99.48% of the world’s governments are engaged in a mass conspiracy to defraud the United States for their own economic benefit, aided and abetted by 7,566,000 of the world’s leading scientists?
Or do you believe that 7,566,000 of the world’s scientists have reported their findings accurately, 99.48% of the world’s governments are taking action accordingly, and one country is holding out for its own selfish reasons?
You decide for yourself.
Scott Garner, CPA, JD, is Vice-President Asia-Pacific for Hi-Vac Corporation (China).
The Asia Environmental Daily